2015-03 Uncertainty Evaluation of Computer Simulation Models (Draft Report)

Deterministic agricultural and agro-ecosystem systems models have an important role worldwide. Although these models are mathematically deterministic, there are many possible sources of uncertainty that can propagate through the model. The development of tools to evaluate uncertainty in deterministic models is an active area of research. There are a number of options for model uncertainty evaluation that have been discussed in the literature. The objectives of this review paper are threefold: 1. To describe a formalised state-space framework within which to describe the types and sources of uncertainty that arise in computer simulation models. 2. To provide a framework to carry out a robust uncertainty evaluation of a computer simulation model. 3. To summarise a selection of relevant sampling and analysis techniques for the uncertainty evaluation of computer simulation models.

Esther Meenken, Chris Triggs et al.



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